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October 24, 2008
FRM問題-你問我答(十一)


李老師,Schweser 2008 FRM Study Notes Book 4 p.64p.65,這兩處我看不懂,請幫我翻譯一下:

p.64最後一段:

Another implication of assuming that the EMH does not apply is that the goals of traders and risk managers are no longer congruent. When a trader takes a position, he must believe that the market is wrong about the current price of a security and that his model is correct. The risk manager, however, will no longer believe that there is a sophisticated model that predicts a fundamental price that the market must move toward. As a result, the risk manager will make calculations and set risk limits based on assumptions different than those used by the trader. This is likely to lead to different assessments of risk - adjusted performance, and the risk management department will set different incentives for the trader. These factors are likely to lead to completely different behaviors for traders under the EMH and non - EMH frameworks. For example, while the trader under the EMH framework may have added to a position that is moving against her, the non - EMH framework trader may be quicker to liquidate the position as a result of the risk management departments skepticism.

答覆:

效率市場假說(Efficient Market Hypothesis, EMH),並不適用的假設之另一個含義是,交易員與風險經理人的看法不一致。交易員取得部位時,一定相信市場的目前證券價位是錯的,而且他的模型一定正確。但是,風險經理人不再相信可預測市價,會朝基本面價格移動的複雜模型。結果,風險經理人會根據與交易員使用的不同假設來計算,並設定風險權限。此會導致不同風險修正後績效,而且風險管理部門會設定不同的交易員獎金。這些因素導致在EMH與非EMH架構下的不同交易員之完全不同行為。例如,當EMH架構下的交易員,可能會增加那些股價偏離基本面股價的股票之部位,而非EMH架構下的交易員可能會因為風險管理部門的質疑而較快清算該部位。

p.65最後一段:

2. Reverse engineering of Prices. Reverse engineering is the process of finding the set of pricing methodologies that best accounts for observed market prices. This process should start with simple building blocks (such as interest rate curves ) to gain an understanding of plain - vanilla products before moving on to assessing more complex products. Risk managers should also account for differences in assumptions, such as those for correlation and volatility, which can impact results even if the same pricing approach is applied.

答覆:

價格的逆向工程(Reverse engineering of prices

逆向工程(reverse engineering)是找出最能解釋市價的定價方法之程序。此程序在進入較複雜商品前,應先從了解陽春型商品的簡單基本建構方塊(building blocks)開始。風險經理人也應解釋假設的差異。例如,相關與波動的不同,此會在即使應用相同的定價法仍會影響結果。

 

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